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26
74
forecasters
22
26 comments
74 forecasters
Artificial Intelligence
1 more...
When will a generative model produce a realistic 2-minute video, at a 256 × 256 resolution or better?
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Latest estimate
29 Jan 2023
29 Jan 2023
(18 Jun 2022 - 31 Dec 2023)
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Forecast Timeline
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Comments (26)
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8
Dec 2034
6
Sep 2034
4
07 Oct 2029
2
07 Sep 2026
20 comments
38 forecasters
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02 Jul 2028
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30 Jun 2028
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11 Apr 2027
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06 Feb 2027
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99%
chance
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Chinese Org Trains on > 1500-TFLOP GPUs
Current estimate
24 Mar 2026
13 comments
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AI Book Summarization Commonly Available
Current estimate
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5 comments
17 forecasters
AI reaches human-level in reading charts
Current estimate
04 Jan 2027