19 comments
82 forecasters
Will the Chinese police or military intervene in Hong Kong in September 2019?
5%chance
ResolvedNo
The community gave this a 5% chance, and it resolved No.
Authors:
Opened:Sep 1, 2019
Closes:Sep 30, 2019
Resolved:Oct 1, 2019
Spot Scoring Time:Sep 2, 2019
Will China launch a military invasion of any country other than Taiwan before 2030?
3% chance
38
If China invades Taiwan before 2035, will the United Kingdom respond with military forces?
16% chance
95
Will China make an official statement before 2030 saying that it has disavowed use of force as a means for reunification with Taiwan?
0.1% chance
35