32 forecasters

Will there be a heat wave that kills at least one million people in a single month before 2050?

35%chance

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Authors:

Opened:

Dec 10, 2024

Closes:

Dec 31, 2049

Scheduled resolution:

Jan 1, 2050

Spot Scoring Time:

Dec 14, 2024

Environment & Climate

From London to Manila, world’s biggest cities face alarming rise in heatwaves

Independent•Sep 30, 2025

World’s major cities hit by 25% leap in extremely hot days since the 1990s

Guardian•Sep 30, 2025

Climate scientists reveal exactly how many people in Europe DIED from heat-related causes in the summer of 2024 – including more than 500 in the UK

Daily Mail•Sep 23, 2025

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