Question
When will the RSA-2048 challenge number be factorized by a quantum computer?
Total Forecasters16
Community Prediction
Jun 2034
(Sep 2030 - Jul 2040)
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CDF
| Quartiles | community | My Prediction |
| lower 25% | Sep 2030 | — |
| median | Jun 2034 | — |
| upper 75% | Jul 2040 | — |
| Upper bound | ||
| >2075 | 2.4% | — |
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Authors:
Opened:Jan 16, 2025
Closes:Dec 31, 2074
Scheduled resolution:Jan 1, 2075
Spot Scoring Time:Jan 19, 2025
Authors:
Opened:Jan 16, 2025
Closes:Dec 31, 2074
Scheduled resolution:Jan 1, 2075
Spot Scoring Time:Jan 19, 2025