Question

Will the 2024 return of professional investor Howard Marks beat the return of any of the politicans tracked by Quiver Quantitative?

Resolved:No

57 comments57

Total Forecasters30

Community Prediction

40%

(26.6% - 62.8%)

Make a Prediction

50%

community: 40%

Did this actually happen?No

Community Peer Score

11.1

Authors:

johnnycaffeine

Opened:

Dec 2, 2024

Closes:

Dec 3, 2024

Resolves:

Dec 31, 2024

Spot Scoring Time:

Dec 3, 2024

Include Bots:Yes

Q4 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament

These 4 charts show where the hedge fund industry is midway through 2025

Business Insider•Jul 4, 2025

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Will the US Economic Policy Uncertainty Index exceed its 2020 peak before 2029?

85%

Will Nvidia outperform the S&P 500 in 2025?

66%

Will legislation pass before 2029 that reduces the federal long-term capital gains tax rate for the highest income bracket?

75%

Authors:

johnnycaffeine

Opened:

Dec 2, 2024

Closes:

Dec 3, 2024

Resolves:

Dec 31, 2024

Spot Scoring Time:

Dec 3, 2024

Include Bots:Yes

Q4 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament

These 4 charts show where the hedge fund industry is midway through 2025

Business Insider•Jul 4, 2025

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Will the US Economic Policy Uncertainty Index exceed its 2020 peak before 2029?

85%

Will Nvidia outperform the S&P 500 in 2025?

66%

Will legislation pass before 2029 that reduces the federal long-term capital gains tax rate for the highest income bracket?

75%