composing accurate wisdom aggregating probable predictions crowdsourcing probable estimations assembling intelligent futures composing quantitative insights mapping the future calculating probable futures predicting probable contingencies calculating contingent forecasts generating calibrated understanding assembling probable understanding exploring critical understanding predicting critical futures calculating predictive wisdom


Metaculus Help: Spread the word

If you like Metaculus, tell your friends! Share this question via Facebook, Twitter, or Reddit.

Bitcoin Lightning Network Capacity in BTC on 2021-Aug-25

Payment channels have been promoted as a way to increase the transaction capacity of the Bitcoin network, particularly when many payment channels are connected to form the lightning network. A mainnet version has been running since early 2018.

At 00:00 UTC on August 25th of 2021, what will be the network capacity of the lightning network on the Bitcoin (BTC) blockchain, as measured in units of Bitcoin, as reported by

Different sources report somewhat different numbers for the number of channels/nodes/BTC capacity. Not all nodes are visible to all other nodes at all times, so reports published by different groups vary by small amounts. For this forecast we’re using the figure reported on simply because you can also download their data in spreadseets. If that site stops updating, we will switch to, and then a third source if needed.


Metaculus help: Predicting

Predictions are the heart of Metaculus. Predicting is how you contribute to the wisdom of the crowd, and how you earn points and build up your personal Metaculus track record.

The basics of predicting are very simple: move the slider to best match the likelihood of the outcome, and click predict. You can predict as often as you want, and you're encouraged to change your mind when new information becomes available.

The displayed score is split into current points and total points. Current points show how much your prediction is worth now, whereas total points show the combined worth of all of your predictions over the lifetime of the question. The scoring details are available on the FAQ.

Note: this question resolved before its original close time. All of your predictions came after the resolution, so you did not gain (or lose) any points for it.

Note: this question resolved before its original close time. You earned points up until the question resolution, but not afterwards.

This question is not yet open for predictions.

Thanks for predicting!

Your prediction has been recorded anonymously.

Want to track your predictions, earn points, and hone your forecasting skills? Create an account today!

Track your predictions
Continue exploring the site

Community Stats

Metaculus help: Community Stats

Use the community stats to get a better sense of the community consensus (or lack thereof) for this question. Sometimes people have wildly different ideas about the likely outcomes, and sometimes people are in close agreement. There are even times when the community seems very certain of uncertainty, like when everyone agrees that event is only 50% likely to happen.

When you make a prediction, check the community stats to see where you land. If your prediction is an outlier, might there be something you're overlooking that others have seen? Or do you have special insight that others are lacking? Either way, it might be a good idea to join the discussion in the comments.

Embed this question

You can use the below code snippet to embed this question on your own webpage. Feel free to change the height and width to suit your needs.