Your submission is now in Draft mode.

Once it's ready, please submit your draft for review by our team of Community Moderators. Thank you!

Submit Essay

Once you submit your essay, you can no longer edit it.


This content now needs to be approved by community moderators.


This essay was submitted and is waiting for review.

Bitcoin Lightning Network Capacity in BTC on 2021-Aug-25


Payment channels have been promoted as a way to increase the transaction capacity of the Bitcoin network, particularly when many payment channels are connected to form the lightning network. A mainnet version has been running since early 2018.

At 00:00 UTC on August 25th of 2021, what will be the network capacity of the lightning network on the Bitcoin (BTC) blockchain, as measured in units of Bitcoin, as reported by

Different sources report somewhat different numbers for the number of channels/nodes/BTC capacity. Not all nodes are visible to all other nodes at all times, so reports published by different groups vary by small amounts. For this forecast we’re using the figure reported on simply because you can also download their data in spreadseets. If that site stops updating, we will switch to, and then a third source if needed.

Make a Prediction


Note: this question resolved before its original close time. All of your predictions came after the resolution, so you did not gain (or lose) any points for it.

Note: this question resolved before its original close time. You earned points up until the question resolution, but not afterwards.

Current points depend on your prediction, the community's prediction, and the result. Your total earned points are averaged over the lifetime of the question, so predict early to get as many points as possible! See the FAQ.