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By the end of 2019, will AlphaStar have won > 80% of its games against top players?

Cross-posted on Metaculus AI Forecasting.

After Deepmind's successful rollout of AlphaStar against Mana, the AI lab started to test AlphaStar against players online. In this iteration AlphaStar has a limited field of view and more APM restrictions.

Some redditors are reporting that AlphaStar is getting creamed; however, their methodology of tracking and finding AlphaStar games might be unreliable. How likely do you think it is that AlphaStar will win a supermajority of its games against pros?

By the end of 2019, will AlphaStar have won > 80% of its games against top players?

  • We'll evaluate the question when DeepMind releases the results of the experiment.

  • This question will resolve positively if AlphaStar wins against Grandmaster level players more than 80% of the time.

  • This question will resolve ambiguously if AlphaStar plays less than ten games against Grandmaster level players.

  • We'll only evaluate games played as part of the Blizzard online experiment.

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