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When will a supermarket sell a product made of ≥20% clean meat, for $3 per 100 grams or cheaper?
Cross-posted on Metaculus.
In 2017, Mark Post, the chief science officer at Mosa Meat predicted that it will take 3–4 years (i.e. until 2020–2021) before cultured burgers are on the market for £10–11 (~$12–$14 USD) per burger, and in around 7 years time (~2024) they will be in supermarkets at lower prices. His colleague at Mosa Meat, Peter Verstrate, expects it to take slightly longer, he remarked:
When will [cultured meat] be in the supermarket around the corner? That'll be closer to 10 than to 5 years, I think.
Bringing clean meat to the shelves is explicitly the goal of the company Mosa Meat to "within the next decade drop [clean meat] in price so that there will be products on supermarket shelves that are competitive with livestock meat products."
Mosa Meat is not the only company with aiming for a commercial launch of clean meat products. As of mid-2019 there are over a dozen companies developing clean meat.
When will a supermarket sell a product made of ≥20% clean meat, for less than $3 (in 2019 USD) per 100 grams?
This question resolves as the date when a retail store, operated by a supermarket, in any country, offers a clean meat containing product made of ≥20% clean meat, including beef, poultry, pork or fish, for human consumption in at least one physical retail store. The product must be for sale for less than $3 (in 2019 USD) per 100 grams. The product must have a weight exceeding 40 grams (so that the clean meat content weighs at least 8 grams). An example of such a product is a burger containing a mixture of clean meat and plant-based meat.
Evidence of the clean meat containing product's listing price and composition should come from credible media reports, online supermarket listings, or from at least three reports sourced from social media and/or submissions by Metaculus users/admin.
The following sales do not identify the price of the product for the purpose of this question: samples given out for free, sales discounted with one-time discounts or discounts derived from coupons, or programmes such as loyalty schemes or credit card membership, amongst other pricing schemes valid for limited time or only available to a subset of customers.
Clean meat is here defined as meat that is grown primarily or entirely in cell culture, rather than in an animal’s body. A supermarket is here defined as the company that operates physical self-service retail markets that sell foods and household merchandise. The supermarket must have at least ten physical stores (although the clean meat product need only be on offer in at least one store). A list of examples of U.S. supermarkets that qualify today can be found here. These will continue to qualify as supermarkets as long as these operate at least ten physical self-service retail markets.
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