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Will the winner of the 2020 Iowa Democratic caucuses win the 2020 Democratic nomination?

As you may have heard, America is electing a President next year. The Democratic Party's process for selecting its nominee begins on February 3, 2020, with the Iowa caucuses, and ends in mid-July at the Democratic National Convention.

The question here is simple. Will the presidential candidate who receives the most support in the Iowa Democratic caucuses end up receiving the party's nomination for the presidency?

The question will resolve positive if the presidential nominee at the convention won the Iowa caucuses and negative if he or she did not. The question resolves ambiguous if the caucuses or the convention fail to occur.

The winner of the Iowa caucuses will be determined to be the candidate who receives the largest percentage of the vote, irrespective of the distribution of delegates. The party's nominee will be determined to be the person nominated at the convention, even if that person is subsequently replaced before the general election.

Historical caucus data is available here. Current Iowa polling data (showing a relatively small lead for Joe Biden) is here.


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