41 comments
245 forecasters
Will Mars have a permanent population of 10,000 before the Moon does?
33%chance
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Authors:
Opened:Sep 24, 2019
Closes:Dec 31, 2099
Scheduled resolution:Dec 31, 2099
Spot Scoring Time:Sep 26, 2019
How many humans will have landed on the moon before anyone does on Mars?
44.2 people
(22.1 - 112)
44.2 people
(22.1 - 112)
17 forecasters
Will there be a sustained human settlement on the Moon for at least 1 year before 2030?
0.1% chance
205
What will be the maximum number of people simultaneously on the moon in 2030?
2.09 people
(0.782 - 4.76)
2.09 people
(0.782 - 4.76)
97 forecasters