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58
574
forecasters
77
58 comments
574 forecasters
Bridgewater x Metaculus Contest Warm Up 2025
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How many Cabinet-level Trump nominations will be confirmed by the US Senate before February 1, 2025?
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2 or fewer
0.1%
3 to 5
0.1%
6 to 8
result:
Yes
9 to 11
11.3%
2 others
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13 comments
124 forecasters
Trump cabinet members serving continuously until January 20, 2028?
Current estimate
6.59 members
3 comments
10 forecasters
Trump II Cabinet Convictions before 2033
Current estimate
2.29 People
4 comments
146 forecasters
Eight or more acting heads of executive departments in 2026?
3.4%
chance
8 comments
25 forecasters
Trump SCOTUS Justices by January 21, 2029
3
16.3%
4
49%
5
27.6%
6
6.1%
7 or more
1%
16 comments
717 forecasters
# of top US officials out in 2026?
Current estimate
4.54 Officials
5 comments
69 forecasters
SCOTUS Confirmations in 2025-2029?
2
40%
1
38%
3 or more
10%
0
10%
25 comments
20 forecasters
US Federal Judges Confirmed
12 comments
76 forecasters
How many times will Trump be impeached?
2
44.1%
3
41.4%
4
12.4%
5 or more
2.1%