12 comments
76 forecasters
Who will win the bet between Gary Marcus and Miles Brundage about the state of AI at the end of 2027?
Gary Marcus85.5%
Miles Brundage14.5%
Forecast Timeline
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Authors:
Opened:Dec 30, 2024
Closes:Dec 31, 2027
Scheduled resolution:Jan 1, 2028
Spot Scoring Time:Dec 31, 2024
Will more than two of Gary Marcus' proposed AI achievements come to pass before 2030?
97% chance
173
Will AI be able to read a novel and reliably answer questions about it before 2030?
99.9% chance
415
Will an AI be able to take arbitrary proofs from the mathematical literature and convert them into a symbolic form suitable for verification before 2030?
92% chance
140