Question
What percentage of the vote will the Alternative für Deutschland win in the 2025 German federal election?
Resolved:20.803Total Forecasters31
Community Prediction
21.6
(19.7 - 24.1)
Make a Prediction
CDF
| Lower bound | community | My Prediction |
| <10 | 0.2% | — |
| Quartiles | ||
| lower 25% | 19.73 | — |
| median | 21.59 | — |
| upper 75% | 24.06 | — |
| Upper bound | ||
| >30 | 1.3% | — |
What was the final result?20.803
Community Baseline Score
46.9
Community Peer Score
6.9
Authors:
Opened:Jan 11, 2025
Closes:Feb 22, 2025
Resolves:Mar 1, 2025
Spot Scoring Time:Jan 14, 2025
Authors:
Opened:Jan 11, 2025
Closes:Feb 22, 2025
Resolves:Mar 1, 2025
Spot Scoring Time:Jan 14, 2025