Question
Will there be at least 1,000 deaths due to direct conflict between Israel and Iran in 2025?
Total Forecasters1260
Community Prediction
92%
(85% - 97%)
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Authors:
Opened:Jan 10, 2025
Closes:Dec 31, 2025
Scheduled resolution:Jan 1, 2026
Spot Scoring Time:Feb 1, 2025
Will the number of deaths due to direct conflict between Israel and Iran reach the following thresholds before 2026?
Will there be at least 1,000 deaths due to direct conflict between India and Pakistan before 2027?
13%
Will a new war or a substantial escalation to a previous war kill at least 5,000 people in 2025?
52%
Authors:
Opened:Jan 10, 2025
Closes:Dec 31, 2025
Scheduled resolution:Jan 1, 2026
Spot Scoring Time:Feb 1, 2025
Will the number of deaths due to direct conflict between Israel and Iran reach the following thresholds before 2026?
Will there be at least 1,000 deaths due to direct conflict between India and Pakistan before 2027?
13%
Will a new war or a substantial escalation to a previous war kill at least 5,000 people in 2025?
52%