Your submission is now in Draft mode.

Once it's ready, please submit your draft for review by our team of Community Moderators. Thank you!

Submit Essay

Once you submit your essay, you can no longer edit it.

Pending

This content now needs to be approved by community moderators.

Submitted

This essay was submitted and is waiting for review.

Will 2017 be the warmest year on record?

Question

Seems like it might be a good time to go into the air conditioner repair business.

In 2015, the average global temperature, according to the NASA Goddard Institute for Space Sciences (GISS) data analysis, was the warmest on record, handily besting the previous mark which was set way back in 2014.

There is unambiguous evidence that climate change, driven by increasing atmospheric CO2 concentration (as well as other greenhouse gases), is responsible for the relentless upward trend. Nonetheless, stochastic variations do lend a short-term veneer of unpredictability to near-term measurements.

A recently closed Metaculus question that asked whether 2016 will break the global heat record was quite popular -- 742 predictions were registered, ascribing an 85% chance of going over the top. Given the interest, it seems reasonable to roll the question out for the coming year:

Will 2017 again set a new record? Or will it fall off the recent record-setting pace?

This will resolve in the positive if the NASA GISS global average temperature for 2017 is published above that of any prior year for which records exist. As a practical matter, this will be either 2015 or (likely) 2016.

Make a Prediction

Prediction

Note: this question resolved before its original close time. All of your predictions came after the resolution, so you did not gain (or lose) any points for it.

Note: this question resolved before its original close time. You earned points up until the question resolution, but not afterwards.

Current points depend on your prediction, the community's prediction, and the result. Your total earned points are averaged over the lifetime of the question, so predict early to get as many points as possible! See the FAQ.