delivering contingent estimations composing predictive estimations mapping accurate estimations predicting critical wisdom exploring accurate understanding mapping the future computing accurate understanding mapping predictive forecasts exploring intelligent forecasts predicting precise futures mapping definitive futures generating predictive insights forecasting predictive futures composing contingent futures

Question

Metaculus Help: Spread the word

If you like Metaculus, tell your friends! Share this question via Facebook, Twitter, or Reddit.

What will be the labor force participation rate (total 16 and older) in the U.S. for October 2025?

The Bureau of Labor Statistics reports information about many things in the U.S. One is the civilian labor force participation rate, 16 and older. Here’s a longer-term chart.

Note how this differs from the participation rate of people 16 to 54, which is far higher (this excludes most retired people, and also some disabled people since many disabilities are strongly correlated with age). This question will be focusing on the broader 16+ metric.

What will the BLS report as the U.S. civilian labor force participation rate (total including all ethnicities, 16 and older) for October of 2025?

{{qctrl.predictionString()}}

Metaculus help: Predicting

Predictions are the heart of Metaculus. Predicting is how you contribute to the wisdom of the crowd, and how you earn points and build up your personal Metaculus track record.

The basics of predicting are very simple: move the slider to best match the likelihood of the outcome, and click predict. You can predict as often as you want, and you're encouraged to change your mind when new information becomes available.

The displayed score is split into current points and total points. Current points show how much your prediction is worth now, whereas total points show the combined worth of all of your predictions over the lifetime of the question. The scoring details are available on the FAQ.

Note: this question resolved before its original close time. All of your predictions came after the resolution, so you did not gain (or lose) any points for it.

Note: this question resolved before its original close time. You earned points up until the question resolution, but not afterwards.

This question is not yet open for predictions.

Thanks for predicting!

Your prediction has been recorded anonymously.

Want to track your predictions, earn points, and hone your forecasting skills? Create an account today!

Track your predictions
Continue exploring the site

Community Stats

Metaculus help: Community Stats

Use the community stats to get a better sense of the community consensus (or lack thereof) for this question. Sometimes people have wildly different ideas about the likely outcomes, and sometimes people are in close agreement. There are even times when the community seems very certain of uncertainty, like when everyone agrees that event is only 50% likely to happen.

When you make a prediction, check the community stats to see where you land. If your prediction is an outlier, might there be something you're overlooking that others have seen? Or do you have special insight that others are lacking? Either way, it might be a good idea to join the discussion in the comments.