📖 The ACX 2025 Prediction Contest Is Open!

The Astral Codex Ten Prediction Contest is back with an expanded $10,000 prize pool! Test your forecasting skills across geopolitics, technology, economics, and more with questions curated by Scott Alexander. Make your predictions by January 31 to compete.

🔭 The Bridgewater x Metaculus Forecasting Contest Goes Global — Feb 3

For the second year, Metaculus is teaming up with Bridgewater Associates to host a competition featuring $25k in prizes and potential opportunities with the asset management firm — and this year, forecasters from around the globe can compete.

Start here to register for the February 3rd competition, warm up on practice questions, and learn about the separate Open and Undergraduate leaderboards.

M

Question

How many Republican U.S. senators will vote to convict on at least one article of impeachment, if Trump is impeached by the House during his first term?

Resolved :14.41
6
13
Total Forecasters43
Community Prediction4.41 (1.59 - 17.2)

Make a Prediction

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CDF

My Prediction
community
lower 25%
median
upper 75%
...
...
...
1.593
4.408
17.21

What was the final result?1

Community Baseline Score
92.0
Community Peer Score
8.6
Authors:
converse
Opened:
Closes:
Resolves:
Politics
2019 Leaderboard
Impeachment of Donald Trump
Donald Trump
US Senate
Republican Party (US)

Comments

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