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How many Republican U.S. senators will vote to convict on at least one article of impeachment, if Trump is impeached by the House during his first term?

At this writing, 53 of the 100 sitting U.S. senators are Republicans. Given the current polarized political climate, a possible outcome is that every Republican senator may vote against all articles of impeachment and every Democrat may vote in favor of all articles.

It's possible, though, that this will depend on the merits of the case that is brought, as well as shifts in public support for the president.

This question will resolve with the number of distinct Republican senators who vote in favor of at least one article of impeachment referred to the Senate in Trump's first term, if articles of impeachment are in fact brought to a vote by the full Senate. It will resolve as ambigous if Trump is not impeached by the House in his first term, or leaves office before the end of his term without being impeached, or if he is impeached but no vote is taken by the full Senate.

If more than one set of articles of impeachment are referred to the Senate at different times, then only the first set that is referred by the House will be considered for this question.

A clarification of what is meant by "distinct Republican senators" in the resolution conditions: if a total of two articles of impeachment are voted on, and 5 Republican senators vote yes on Article 1 and no on Article 2, and 10 other Republican senators vote no on Article 1 and yes on Article 2, and those are the only yes votes from Republicans, then the resolution number will be 15, even though no single article received that many Republican yes votes.

Note: given the herd-like nature of partisan voting behavior, the new multi-modal prediction capability may come in handy.


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