49 forecasters

Will any frontier model be released in 2029 without a third-party evaluation of dangerous capabilities?

60%chance

Forecast Timeline

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Authors:

Opened:

Jan 23, 2025

Closes:

Jan 1, 2030

Scheduled resolution:

Jan 15, 2030

Spot Scoring Time:

Jan 23, 2025

AGI 2030 Readiness Index

Artificial Intelligence

Newest generation of GPT models show major drop in political bias, OpenAI says

New York Post•Oct 10, 2025

ChatGPT safety systems can be bypassed to get weapons instructions

NBC•Oct 10, 2025

Anthropic's latest AI model can tell when it's being evaluated: 'I think you're testing me'

Business Insider•Oct 7, 2025

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