Question

Will any frontier model be released in 2029 without a third-party evaluation of dangerous capabilities?

1
3
Total Forecasters45
Community Prediction
51%
(40% - 67%)

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50%
community: 51%
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Authors:
sandman
Opened:Jan 23, 2025
Closes:Jan 1, 2030
Scheduled resolution:Jan 15, 2030
Spot Scoring Time:Jan 23, 2025
AGI 2030 Readiness Index
Artificial Intelligence