Question
What will the upper limit in the IPCC's ‘likely’ range of its climate sensitivity estimate be, in its 6th Assessment Report?
Resolved:4Total Forecasters38
Community Prediction
4.43
(3.98 - 4.66)
Make a Prediction
CDF
| Lower bound | community | My Prediction |
| <1.5 | 0.2% | — |
| Quartiles | ||
| lower 25% | 3.976 | — |
| median | 4.433 | — |
| upper 75% | 4.66 | — |
| Upper bound | ||
| >6.5 | 0.3% | — |
What was the final result?4
Community Baseline Score
64.9
Community Peer Score
10.9
Authors:
Opened:Oct 13, 2019
Closes:Dec 1, 2021
Resolves:Dec 1, 2021
Spot Scoring Time:Oct 15, 2019
Authors:
Opened:Oct 13, 2019
Closes:Dec 1, 2021
Resolves:Dec 1, 2021
Spot Scoring Time:Oct 15, 2019