Metaculus Help: Spread the word
If you like Metaculus, tell your friends! Share this question via Facebook, Twitter, or Reddit.
1 dollar/watt solar energy by 2020?
America's shift toward renewable energy leans heavily on solar power, a technology that can be installed on homes and relies on a source of energy that is clean and essentially unlimited.
Solar power utilizes photovoltaic technology to convert light energy into electricity. Once the solar panels are manufactured, they produce no carbon dioxide emissions. Installations range from single-family rooftop residential panels all the way up to large utility-scale solar farms.
To help clean energy gain wide adoption and to spur the creation of jobs in the green economy, the U.S. Department of Energy launched the SunShot initiative with the goal of decreasing the price of solar power by 75% between 2010 and 2020.
SunShot, through targeted project funding opportunities, seeks to reduce the cost of solar technology, reduce the cost of integrating solar panels with electrical grids, and accelerate the spread of solar power throughout the country.
Will the SunShot Initiative's goals of decreasing the price of solar power by 75% between 2010 and 2020 be met?
To resolve as positive, a credible news outlet, Department of Energy press release, Solar Energies Industries Association report, or other public report must report that the average prices for installed solar panels is at or below $1.50 per watt (DC) for residential installations, $1.25 for commercial, and $1 for utility-scale installations on or before December 31, 2020.
Metaculus help: Predicting
Predictions are the heart of Metaculus. Predicting is how you contribute to the wisdom of the crowd, and how you earn points and build up your personal Metaculus track record.
The basics of predicting are very simple: move the slider to best match the likelihood of the outcome, and click predict. You can predict as often as you want, and you're encouraged to change your mind when new information becomes available. With tachyons you'll even be able to go back in time and backdate your prediction to maximize your points.
The displayed score is split into current points and total points. Current points show how much your prediction is worth now, whereas total points show the combined worth of all of your predictions over the lifetime of the question. The scoring details are available on the FAQ.
Note: this question resolved before its original close time. All of your predictions came after the resolution, so you did not gain (or lose) any points for it.
Note: this question resolved before its original close time. You earned points up until the question resolution, but not afterwards.
This question is not yet open for predictions.
Metaculus help: Community Stats
Use the community stats to get a better sense of the community consensus (or lack thereof) for this question. Sometimes people have wildly different ideas about the likely outcomes, and sometimes people are in close agreement. There are even times when the community seems very certain of uncertainty, like when everyone agrees that event is only 50% likely to happen.
When you make a prediction, check the community stats to see where you land. If your prediction is an outlier, might there be something you're overlooking that others have seen? Or do you have special insight that others are lacking? Either way, it might be a good idea to join the discussion in the comments.