Question

Will Israel be the fourth country to soft-land a spacecraft on the Moon, if they do so before 2026?

Resolved:No

20 comments20

Total Forecasters125

Community Prediction

28%

(3% - 33%)

Make a Prediction

50%

community: 28%

Did this actually happen?No

Community Baseline Score

26.4

Community Peer Score

8.6

Authors:

datscilly

Opened:

Oct 29, 2019

Closes:

Jan 1, 2026

Resolves:

Jan 1, 2026

Spot Scoring Time:

Oct 29, 2019

Technology

Space

2016-2025 Leaderboard

See it: New NASA images show crash site of failed Japanese lunar lander

•Jun 24, 2025

Japanese company blames laser tool for its 2nd crash landing on the moon

•Jun 24, 2025

Moon Landing Mishap: ispace's Resilience Crash Revealed

•Jun 24, 2025

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Authors:

datscilly

Opened:

Oct 29, 2019

Closes:

Jan 1, 2026

Resolves:

Jan 1, 2026

Spot Scoring Time:

Oct 29, 2019

Technology

Space

2016-2025 Leaderboard

See it: New NASA images show crash site of failed Japanese lunar lander

•Jun 24, 2025

Japanese company blames laser tool for its 2nd crash landing on the moon

•Jun 24, 2025

Moon Landing Mishap: ispace's Resilience Crash Revealed

•Jun 24, 2025

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

How many spacecraft will land on the moon from 2022 through 2025?

6.01

Will India have a successful crewed moon landing before 2027?

0.1%

Will China land the next person on the Moon?

30%