15 comments
174 forecasters
By November 2nd, 2020, will 80% or fewer people be employed by DeepMind than the 836 employed today?
1%chance
ResolvedNo
The community gave this a 1% chance, and it resolved No.
Forecast Timeline
Authors:
Opened:Nov 2, 2019
Closes:Oct 9, 2020
Resolved:Nov 2, 2020
Spot Scoring Time:Nov 2, 2019
Will the percent of U.S. workers employed in white-collar jobs drop at least 2 percentage points below the 2022 level before 2026?
7% chance
79
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28% chance
2
Will the Nonlinear Fund have more than eight full-time equivalent employees on January 1, 2026?
67% chance
20