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# Will the US-China trade war still be ongoing by November 2nd, 2020?

### Question

The China–United States trade war is an ongoing economic conflict between the world’s two largest national economies. President Donald Trump in 2018 began setting tariffs and other trade barriers on China with the goal of forcing it to make changes to what the U.S. says are "unfair trade practices".

So far, the US has imposed tariffs on more than $360bn (£296bn) of Chinese goods, and China has retaliated with tariffs on more than$110bn of US products (BBC).

Will the US-China trade war still be ongoing by November 2nd, 2020?

Resolution

This resolves positively if, over August 2nd, 2020 to November 2nd, 2020 period,

1. the U.S. imposes additional ≥$15bn worth in tariffs on Chinese goods, or China imposes addtional ≥$5bn worth of tarrifs on imports from the U.S.

AND, over August 2nd, 2020 to November 2nd, 2020 period,

1. No tariff reductions worth ≥$25bn on the imports of Chinese goods are made by the U.S., and no tariff reductions on the order of ≥$15bn on the imports of U.S. goods are made by China

The question resolves negatively if neither 1., 2. are deemed to have occurred. Finally, the question resolves ambiguously if only one of the two conditions obtain.

For the purpose of this question, the value of tariffs is the total amount that would be paid as tariffs under the assumption that import flows are equal to those in 2019 (i.e. not accounting for expenditure-switching effects). For example, if the U.S. increases its tariffs by 10% on Chinese goods that generated $200bn in export revenue for China in 2019, the value of those tariffs in 2020 will be considered to have been$20bn.

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