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When will an AI defeat one of the top 10 StarCraft 2 players?

In January the StarCraft 2 playing AI, Alphastar, defeated professional players 10-1.

This was certainly a major acheivement and milestone. However, there was a question of whether the AI won only due to its ability to learn the game and make intelligent decisions, or also because of the physical limitations of the human opponent.

The Google Deepmind team decided to limit Alphastar to a "max of 22 agent actions per 5 seconds", which is a rough equivalent to the fastest human players. They have recently announced that Alphastar has reached the 'Grandmaster' league - the top 200 players on Battle.net's European server.

Very impressive, but when will its abilities exceed those of the best humans?

When will an AI defeat one of the world's top ten players in a formal match?

  • The AI must be under Alphastar's current constraints, or stricter. I.e. it can make up to 22 "agent actions"* over any five second span.
  • The match must be in the typical format of professional tournaments: three or more games on different maps. The maps must be official Blizzard ladder maps. Alphastar and its opponent can play any race.
  • Whether the player is "top ten" will be determined by their ranking on gosugamers.net on the day of the match. If that site cannot be used for whatever reason, another credible Elo ranking system can be used.
  • If the validity of the match is disputed by Blizzard, it does not count.

If positively resolved, closes retroactively 1 hour prior to the beginning of the match in which the defeat occurs.

*Defined at the very end of Deepmind's announcement

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