Metaculus Help: Spread the word
If you like Metaculus, tell your friends! Share this question via Facebook, Twitter, or Reddit.
When will an AI defeat one of the top 10 StarCraft 2 players?
In January the StarCraft 2 playing AI, Alphastar, defeated professional players 10-1.
This was certainly a major acheivement and milestone. However, there was a question of whether the AI won only due to its ability to learn the game and make intelligent decisions, or also because of the physical limitations of the human opponent.
The Google Deepmind team decided to limit Alphastar to a "max of 22 agent actions per 5 seconds", which is a rough equivalent to the fastest human players. They have recently announced that Alphastar has reached the 'Grandmaster' league - the top 200 players on Battle.net's European server.
Very impressive, but when will its abilities exceed those of the best humans?
When will an AI defeat one of the world's top ten players in a formal match?
- The AI must be under Alphastar's current constraints, or stricter. I.e. it can make up to 22 "agent actions"* over any five second span.
- The match must be in the typical format of professional tournaments: three or more games on different maps. The maps must be official Blizzard ladder maps. Alphastar and its opponent can play any race.
- Whether the player is "top ten" will be determined by their ranking on gosugamers.net on the day of the match. If that site cannot be used for whatever reason, another credible Elo ranking system can be used.
- If the validity of the match is disputed by Blizzard, it does not count.
If positively resolved, closes retroactively 1 hour prior to the beginning of the match in which the defeat occurs.
*Defined at the very end of Deepmind's announcement
Metaculus help: Predicting
Predictions are the heart of Metaculus. Predicting is how you contribute to the wisdom of the crowd, and how you earn points and build up your personal Metaculus track record.
The basics of predicting are very simple: move the slider to best match the likelihood of the outcome, and click predict. You can predict as often as you want, and you're encouraged to change your mind when new information becomes available.
The displayed score is split into current points and total points. Current points show how much your prediction is worth now, whereas total points show the combined worth of all of your predictions over the lifetime of the question. The scoring details are available on the FAQ.
Note: this question resolved before its original close time. All of your predictions came after the resolution, so you did not gain (or lose) any points for it.
Note: this question resolved before its original close time. You earned points up until the question resolution, but not afterwards.
This question is not yet open for predictions.
Metaculus help: Community Stats
Use the community stats to get a better sense of the community consensus (or lack thereof) for this question. Sometimes people have wildly different ideas about the likely outcomes, and sometimes people are in close agreement. There are even times when the community seems very certain of uncertainty, like when everyone agrees that event is only 50% likely to happen.
When you make a prediction, check the community stats to see where you land. If your prediction is an outlier, might there be something you're overlooking that others have seen? Or do you have special insight that others are lacking? Either way, it might be a good idea to join the discussion in the comments.
Embed this question
You can use the below code snippet to embed this question on your own webpage. Feel free to change the height and width to suit your needs.