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9
51
forecasters
6
9 comments
51 forecasters
Metaculus
1 more...
When will Metaculus be linked to by 130 sites?
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21 Dec 2024
result
04 Apr 2022 UTC
Resolved
04 Apr 2022 UTC
Forecast Timeline
1d
1w
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all
Forecast Timeline
1d
1w
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all
Comments (9)
Timeline
Key Factors (0)
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36 comments
117 forecasters
Date of Last Metaculus Resolution
Current estimate
Mar 2047
10 comments
60 forecasters
Will Metaculus, or a licensed derivative, be operated as a public site by a publicly traded company by 2030?
2.4%
chance
86 comments
166 forecasters
Total Number of Metaculus Predictions
55 comments
539 forecasters
Metaculus Existence in 2030
98%
chance
9 comments
11 forecasters
When AI to exceed 130 IQ
Current estimate
24 Jun 2026
14 comments
62 forecasters
AI resolving questions on Metaculus
2025
result:
No
2030
70%
2035
91%
2040
90%
2050
96%
17 comments
149 forecasters
Metaculus Predicts AI Risk Significant 2040
85%
chance
2 comments
5 forecasters
2026 Peer Accuracy leaderboard top 10 mean?
Current estimate
47.6 points