Question

By November 2020 will a prediction made by a prediction aggregation platform be quoted in the NYT or WaPo on an issue not in politics, sports, or prizes?

Resolved:No

37 comments37

Total Forecasters156

Community Prediction

40%

(33% - 50%)

Make a Prediction

50%

community: 40%

Did this actually happen?No

Community Baseline Score

-9.4

Community Peer Score

6.3

Authors:

Anthony

Opened:

Nov 2, 2019

Closes:

Sep 1, 2020

Resolves:

Nov 8, 2020

Spot Scoring Time:

Nov 2, 2019

Foresight 2020 Contest

Metaculus

2016-2020 Leaderboard

Will Metaculus anticipate the biggest unforeseen trend of the 2020s?

32%

Will the US Economic Policy Uncertainty Index exceed its 2020 peak before 2029?

85%

Will any AI system beat a team of human pros in a forecasting tournament before 2030?

90%

Authors:

Anthony

Opened:

Nov 2, 2019

Closes:

Sep 1, 2020

Resolves:

Nov 8, 2020

Spot Scoring Time:

Nov 2, 2019

Foresight 2020 Contest

Metaculus

2016-2020 Leaderboard

Will Metaculus anticipate the biggest unforeseen trend of the 2020s?

32%

Will the US Economic Policy Uncertainty Index exceed its 2020 peak before 2029?

85%

Will any AI system beat a team of human pros in a forecasting tournament before 2030?

90%