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By November 2020 will a prediction made by a prediction aggregation platform be quoted in the NYT or WaPo on an issue not in politics, sports, or prizes?
While here we are all fans of making probabilistic predictions and thinking clearly and quantitatively about all sorts of future issues, the fact is that this way of thinking is as yet not at all mainstream.
As of November 2019, searches by the author of "prediction market", "predictit", "metaculus", "good judgement project" and a few similar terms uncovered no case in which predictions by prediction market or platform were quoted for a topic other than politics, sports, or movie awards.
This question resolves positive if between November 2, 2019 and November 2, 2020 a particular prediction made by a prediction market, or a crowd-based platform like Metaculus, is quoted in the WaPo or NYT, regarding something that is not related to sports or politics*, or for which an award is given.
*Construed to mean political contests, ballots, referenda, and the fate of various political figures.
Metaculus help: Predicting
Predictions are the heart of Metaculus. Predicting is how you contribute to the wisdom of the crowd, and how you earn points and build up your personal Metaculus track record.
The basics of predicting are very simple: move the slider to best match the likelihood of the outcome, and click predict. You can predict as often as you want, and you're encouraged to change your mind when new information becomes available.
The displayed score is split into current points and total points. Current points show how much your prediction is worth now, whereas total points show the combined worth of all of your predictions over the lifetime of the question. The scoring details are available on the FAQ.
Note: this question resolved before its original close time. All of your predictions came after the resolution, so you did not gain (or lose) any points for it.
Note: this question resolved before its original close time. You earned points up until the question resolution, but not afterwards.
This question is not yet open for predictions.
Metaculus help: Community Stats
Use the community stats to get a better sense of the community consensus (or lack thereof) for this question. Sometimes people have wildly different ideas about the likely outcomes, and sometimes people are in close agreement. There are even times when the community seems very certain of uncertainty, like when everyone agrees that event is only 50% likely to happen.
When you make a prediction, check the community stats to see where you land. If your prediction is an outlier, might there be something you're overlooking that others have seen? Or do you have special insight that others are lacking? Either way, it might be a good idea to join the discussion in the comments.
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