Your submission is now in Draft mode.

Once it's ready, please submit your draft for review by our team of Community Moderators. Thank you!

Submit Essay

Once you submit your essay, you can no longer edit it.


This content now needs to be approved by community moderators.


This essay was submitted and is waiting for review.

By November 2020 will a prediction made by a prediction aggregation platform be quoted in the NYT or WaPo on an issue not in politics, sports, or prizes?


While here we are all fans of making probabilistic predictions and thinking clearly and quantitatively about all sorts of future issues, the fact is that this way of thinking is as yet not at all mainstream.

As of November 2019, searches by the author of "prediction market", "predictit", "metaculus", "good judgement project" and a few similar terms uncovered no case in which predictions by prediction market or platform were quoted for a topic other than politics, sports, or movie awards.

This question resolves positive if between November 2, 2019 and November 2, 2020 a particular prediction made by a prediction market, or a crowd-based platform like Metaculus, is quoted in the WaPo or NYT, regarding something that is not related to sports or politics*, or for which an award is given.

*Construed to mean political contests, ballots, referenda, and the fate of various political figures.

Make a Prediction


Note: this question resolved before its original close time. All of your predictions came after the resolution, so you did not gain (or lose) any points for it.

Note: this question resolved before its original close time. You earned points up until the question resolution, but not afterwards.

Current points depend on your prediction, the community's prediction, and the result. Your total earned points are averaged over the lifetime of the question, so predict early to get as many points as possible! See the FAQ.