🔭 The Bridgewater x Metaculus Forecasting Contest Goes Global — Feb 3

For the second year, Metaculus is teaming up with Bridgewater Associates to host a competition featuring $25k in prizes and potential opportunities with the asset management firm — and this year, forecasters from around the globe can compete.

Start here to register for the February 3rd competition, warm up on practice questions, and learn about the separate Open and Undergraduate leaderboards.

M

Question

How large will the largest single grant made by Open Philanthropy in 2020 be?

Resolved :33.9M34M
11
11
Total Forecasters76
Community Prediction34M (33.6M - 34.3M)

Make a Prediction

PDF

CDF

My Prediction
community
<20M
lower 25%
median
upper 75%
>60M
...
...
...
...
...
0.2%
33.64M
33.96M
34.31M
1.1%

What was the final result?33.9M

Community Baseline Score
82.5
Community Peer Score
45.5
Authors:
tetraspace
Opened:
Closes:
Resolves:
2016-2020 Leaderboard
Malaria Consortium
Against Malaria Foundation
Ethics
GiveWell
Open Philanthropy
AI control problem
OpenAI
Dustin Moskovitz

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