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How large will the largest single grant made by Open Philanthropy in 2020 be?
Open Philanthropy is a grantmaking organisation mainly funded by Cari Tuna and Dustin Moskovitz, making grants using the principles of effective altruism.
In past years, the largest single grants made by OpenPhil were:
- 2019 - $55,000,000 to Georgetown University to launch the Center for Security and Emerging Technology.
- 2018 - $26,600,000 to the Malaria Consortium for their seasonal malaria chemoprevention programs.
- 2017 - $30,000,000 to OpenAI for general support.
- 2016 - $22,845,518 to the Against Malaria Foundation for general support.
Thus far, many of the largest grants have been to GiveWell recommended charities, with the grant amounts also being recommended by GiveWell. There have also been large grants related to AI safety.
How large will the largest single grant made by Open Philanthropy in 2020 be, in 2020 dollars?
Judgement will be by the largest dollar amount listed in Open Philanthropy's grants database for grants made in the year 2020.
Metaculus help: Predicting
Predictions are the heart of Metaculus. Predicting is how you contribute to the wisdom of the crowd, and how you earn points and build up your personal Metaculus track record.
The basics of predicting are very simple: move the slider to best match the likelihood of the outcome, and click predict. You can predict as often as you want, and you're encouraged to change your mind when new information becomes available.
The displayed score is split into current points and total points. Current points show how much your prediction is worth now, whereas total points show the combined worth of all of your predictions over the lifetime of the question. The scoring details are available on the FAQ.
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Metaculus help: Community Stats
Use the community stats to get a better sense of the community consensus (or lack thereof) for this question. Sometimes people have wildly different ideas about the likely outcomes, and sometimes people are in close agreement. There are even times when the community seems very certain of uncertainty, like when everyone agrees that event is only 50% likely to happen.
When you make a prediction, check the community stats to see where you land. If your prediction is an outlier, might there be something you're overlooking that others have seen? Or do you have special insight that others are lacking? Either way, it might be a good idea to join the discussion in the comments.