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Will the Chinese police or military intervene in Hong Kong in 2019?


Since the 31st of March 2019, Hong Kong has been the stage of mass protests initially against a bill that would facilitate extraditions to China (wikipedia).

The Guardian reports that on the 16th of November 2019:

On Saturday afternoon, a few dozen Chinese soldiers jogged out of their barracks in triple file line, wearing shorts and matching army green T-shirts. They cheerily joined a group of residents, clearing away road blocks set up by anti-government protesters, using brooms and plastic buckets.

This Le Monde article (fr) identifies three entities under direct chinese authorities which could intervene in Hong Kong:

  • The People's Armed Police (PAP), a paramilitary police under the authority of the Central Military Commission.
  • The People's Liberation Army (PLA), a military force with 5000 troops stationned in Hong Kong. Hong Kong law allows its intervention by request of the Hong Kong government.
  • The Chinese Police, which could reinforce the equivalent Hong Kong Police Force.

The above November 16th soldiers belonged to the PLA.

Question: Will either PLA, PAP, or mainland police personnel physically intervene to oppose protesters in Hong Kong in 2019?

Positive resolution will be by either:

  • The Chinese or Hong Kong government (or any such government affiliated body) declaring this has happened.
  • A UN Security Council permanent member government declaring this has happened.
  • Overwhelming media report this has happened (at least 5 separate first hand accounts, preferably with photographic evidence).

Resolution details:

  • Physical intervention is taken here to mean that at least some personnel of the Chinese police or PLA or PAP is involved in the controlling, dispersing, or arresting people who are involved in a riot, demonstration, or protest in Hong Kong. These personnel may or may not be requested to assist by Hong Kong government, or the Hong Kong police.
  • The question resolves negatively if evidence in accordance with the above three criteria of the Chinese police or military intervening in 2019 are not found before the end of the 7th of January, 2020.
  • Positive resolution retroactively closes the question 24 hours before the events.

This question was already asked twice: for August and for September 2019, and resolved negatively both times.


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