Metaculus Help: Spread the word
If you like Metaculus, tell your friends! Share this question via Facebook, Twitter, or Reddit.
Will ≥8% of U.S. adults self-report to follow a vegetarian diet before 2036?
Vegetarianism is the practice of abstaining from the consumption of meat (red meat, poultry, seafood, and the flesh of any other animal). Vegetarianism may be adopted for various reasons. Objections to eating meat might arise out of concerns for animal welfare, animal rights, or be borne out of religious beliefs. Other motivations for vegetarianism include health-related, environmental, cultural, aesthetic or economic ones.
There are different types of vegetarianism: an ovo-lacto vegetarian diet includes both eggs and dairy products, an ovo-vegetarian diet includes eggs but not dairy products, and a lacto-vegetarian diet includes dairy. By contrast, the vegan diet excludes all animal products, including eggs and dairy.
In a 2019 national survey of 2,027 U.S. adults aged 18 and older, commissioned by the Vegetarian Resource Group, 4% of respondents self-reported as Vegetarian (Including Vegans)
Will ≥8% of adults in the U.S. self-report to follow a vegetarian diet before Jan 1st, 2036, in a major poll of a representative cross section of U.S. adults?
For the purpose of this question, self-reporting any vegetarian status amounts to agreeing with the proposition "I never eat meat, fish, seafood, or poultry". At least 2,000 adults representing a cross section of U.S. adults must be polled. The source used for the purpose of this question is a poll commissioned by the Vegetarian Resource Group (VRG). If surveys commissioned by the Vegetarian Resource Group are no longer admissible or are discontinued, an admin may decide to consult other polls if i) there is especially strong evidence that respondents are a representable cross section of U.S. adults, and ii) at least 4,000 adults are polled, and iii) respondents are asked whether they never eat meat, fish, seafood or poultry.
Metaculus help: Predicting
Predictions are the heart of Metaculus. Predicting is how you contribute to the wisdom of the crowd, and how you earn points and build up your personal Metaculus track record.
The basics of predicting are very simple: move the slider to best match the likelihood of the outcome, and click predict. You can predict as often as you want, and you're encouraged to change your mind when new information becomes available.
The displayed score is split into current points and total points. Current points show how much your prediction is worth now, whereas total points show the combined worth of all of your predictions over the lifetime of the question. The scoring details are available on the FAQ.
Note: this question resolved before its original close time. All of your predictions came after the resolution, so you did not gain (or lose) any points for it.
Note: this question resolved before its original close time. You earned points up until the question resolution, but not afterwards.
This question is not yet open for predictions.
Metaculus help: Community Stats
Use the community stats to get a better sense of the community consensus (or lack thereof) for this question. Sometimes people have wildly different ideas about the likely outcomes, and sometimes people are in close agreement. There are even times when the community seems very certain of uncertainty, like when everyone agrees that event is only 50% likely to happen.
When you make a prediction, check the community stats to see where you land. If your prediction is an outlier, might there be something you're overlooking that others have seen? Or do you have special insight that others are lacking? Either way, it might be a good idea to join the discussion in the comments.