Your submission is now in Draft mode.

Once it's ready, please submit your draft for review by our team of Community Moderators. Thank you!

Submit Essay

Once you submit your essay, you can no longer edit it.

Pending

This content now needs to be approved by community moderators.

Submitted

This essay was submitted and is waiting for review.

How impeached will Trump be?

Question

Given the high drama in the US House of Representatives, we're all wondering it, but there are lots of possible outcomes. So I've tried to make a sliding scale running from "not impeached at all" through "impeached and removed and barred from running again."

1 - The House does not take a vote on impeachment.

2 - The House votes on impeachment but does not achieve a majority to impeach.

3 - Trump is impeached but the Senate never tries him, somehow

4 - Trump is impeached but acquitted (no removal from, or barring running for, office) by the Senate

5 - Trump resigns before Senate takes a vote on impeachment

6 - Trump is removed by the Senate but not barred from running again.

7 - Trump is removed from office by Senate and barred from running again.

I've tried to make these mutually exclusive so the question resolves, and retroactively closes, one day prior to the triggering event, except for options (1) or (3), which resolve Nov. 1 2020 or at an earlier date if things become clear.

(Edited 11/23 to remove the option for leaving Trump in office but barring him from running again.)

Categories:
Politics – US

Make a Prediction

Prediction

Note: this question resolved before its original close time. All of your predictions came after the resolution, so you did not gain (or lose) any points for it.

Note: this question resolved before its original close time. You earned points up until the question resolution, but not afterwards.

Current points depend on your prediction, the community's prediction, and the result. Your total earned points are averaged over the lifetime of the question, so predict early to get as many points as possible! See the FAQ.