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World population forecast to peak before 2100?

In most developed countries the birth rate is below the natural replacement rate of about 2.1 births per female. The past few decades have seen a pattern where developing countries undergo a demographic transition as they develop, giving lower birth rates and longer lifespans at the same time as economic developments.

World population forecasts which include economic development and demographic transition then predict an eventual peak to the world's population.

The most prominent world population forecast is produced every two years by the United Nations. In their latest version from 2015 the world population is, in the most likely scenario, projected to continue growing thru 2100.

On the other hand, the 2014 population projection from the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis attempts a more refined analysis of the role of female education in demographic transition and forecasts a population peak before 2100.

Neither the UN nor IIASA approaches takes into account growth-limiting factors like food availability, disease, or climate change.

Since it is a long time to wait to find out when the population peak will occur, for this question we will focus only on the most prominent UN projection.

Will the 2017 revision of the UN World Population Prospects project a population peak by 2100 in its most likely scenario?

Resolution is positive if the 2017 update shows a "median" in the probabilistic projections (see this link but select WORLD from the menu) with a population maximum earlier than 2100.


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