🔭 The Bridgewater x Metaculus Forecasting Contest Goes Global — Feb 3

For the second year, Metaculus is teaming up with Bridgewater Associates to host a competition featuring $25k in prizes and potential opportunities with the asset management firm — and this year, forecasters from around the globe can compete.

Start here to register for the February 3rd competition, warm up on practice questions, and learn about the separate Open and Undergraduate leaderboards.

M

Question

How many candidates will get at least 15% of votes in the 2020 Iowa Democratic caucuses?

Resolved :33.16
9
37
Total Forecasters61
Community Prediction3.16 (2.81 - 3.87)

Make a Prediction

PDF

CDF

My Prediction
community
lower 25%
median
upper 75%
...
...
...
2.811
3.16
3.875

What was the final result?3

Community Baseline Score
74.0
Community Peer Score
24.2
Authors:
Pablo
Opened:
Closes:
Resolves:
Elections
2016-2020 Leaderboard
2020 Iowa Democratic caucuses
2020 US presidential election
Democratic Party (US)

Comments

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