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    2.5% S&P 500 change on November 9?

    Created by Anthony on {{qctrl.question.created_time | dateStr}}.
    Community prediction hidden until {{qctrl.question.cp_hidden_period_ends_time | dateStr}}
    Published by Anthony on {{qctrl.question.publish_time | dateStr}}.

    Question

    The next US presidential election will be held Tuesday Nov. 8 2016, and the results very likely known that evening.

    We can model stock prices on the morning of Nov. 8 as a probability-weighted average of the stock values conditioned on Clinton's being elected and on Trump's being elected. After the probabilities collapse to 0 and 1 or 1 and 0, the stock prices should adjust accordingly.

    In a previous question it's been noted that even 2.5% changes in the stock market are rare; but a comment under that question predicted that one would occur shortly after this upcoming election.

    Will the S&P 500 change by > 2.5% from its opening on Nov. 8 to its closing on Nov. 9?

    A sister question will ask about whether the change will be up or down.

    Categories:
    Elections – U.S. – President
    Finance

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