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2.5% S&P 500 change on November 9?
The next US presidential election will be held Tuesday Nov. 8 2016, and the results very likely known that evening.
We can model stock prices on the morning of Nov. 8 as a probability-weighted average of the stock values conditioned on Clinton's being elected and on Trump's being elected. After the probabilities collapse to 0 and 1 or 1 and 0, the stock prices should adjust accordingly.
In a previous question it's been noted that even 2.5% changes in the stock market are rare; but a comment under that question predicted that one would occur shortly after this upcoming election.
Will the S&P 500 change by > 2.5% from its opening on Nov. 8 to its closing on Nov. 9?
A sister question will ask about whether the change will be up or down.
Metaculus help: Predicting
Predictions are the heart of Metaculus. Predicting is how you contribute to the wisdom of the crowd, and how you earn points and build up your personal Metaculus track record.
The basics of predicting are very simple: move the slider to best match the likelihood of the outcome, and click predict. You can predict as often as you want, and you're encouraged to change your mind when new information becomes available. With tachyons you'll even be able to go back in time and backdate your prediction to maximize your points.
The displayed score is split into current points and total points. Current points show how much your prediction is worth now, whereas total points show the combined worth of all of your predictions over the lifetime of the question. The scoring details are available on the FAQ.
Note: this question resolved before its original close time. All of your predictions came after the resolution, so you did not gain (or lose) any points for it.
Note: this question resolved before its original close time. You earned points up until the question resolution, but not afterwards.
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Metaculus help: Community Stats
Use the community stats to get a better sense of the community consensus (or lack thereof) for this question. Sometimes people have wildly different ideas about the likely outcomes, and sometimes people are in close agreement. There are even times when the community seems very certain of uncertainty, like when everyone agrees that event is only 50% likely to happen.
When you make a prediction, check the community stats to see where you land. If your prediction is an outlier, might there be something you're overlooking that others have seen? Or do you have special insight that others are lacking? Either way, it might be a good idea to join the discussion in the comments.