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2.5% S&P 500 change on November 9?
The next US presidential election will be held Tuesday Nov. 8 2016, and the results very likely known that evening.
We can model stock prices on the morning of Nov. 8 as a probability-weighted average of the stock values conditioned on Clinton's being elected and on Trump's being elected. After the probabilities collapse to 0 and 1 or 1 and 0, the stock prices should adjust accordingly.
In a previous question it's been noted that even 2.5% changes in the stock market are rare; but a comment under that question predicted that one would occur shortly after this upcoming election.
Will the S&P 500 change by > 2.5% from its opening on Nov. 8 to its closing on Nov. 9?
A sister question will ask about whether the change will be up or down.
Metaculus help: Predicting
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The basics of predicting are very simple: move the slider to best match the likelihood of the outcome, and click predict. You can predict as often as you want, and you're encouraged to change your mind when new information becomes available.
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Metaculus help: Community Stats
Use the community stats to get a better sense of the community consensus (or lack thereof) for this question. Sometimes people have wildly different ideas about the likely outcomes, and sometimes people are in close agreement. There are even times when the community seems very certain of uncertainty, like when everyone agrees that event is only 50% likely to happen.
When you make a prediction, check the community stats to see where you land. If your prediction is an outlier, might there be something you're overlooking that others have seen? Or do you have special insight that others are lacking? Either way, it might be a good idea to join the discussion in the comments.
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