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Stock market rise correlated with Clinton victory?


The US presidential election takes place Nov. 8, 2016. Either Clinton or Trump will presumably be declared winner that evening.

The stock market has currently (and will up to the 8th) 'priced in' the probability of a Clinton or Trump victory. But is the stock value conditioned on a Clinton victory higher or lower than conditioned on a Trump victory? That will be decided on Nov. 9.

Will the S&P 500 closing price at the end of trading on Nov. 9, compared to the morning of the 8th, correlate with a Clinton victory?

Question resolves as positive if:

  • Clinton wins and the S&P 500 rises by > 0.1% OR
  • Trump wins and the S&P 500 falls by > 0.1%

If Trump wins and prices go up OR Clinton wins and prices go down (by the same amount), question resolves negatively. If neither candidate is declared winner on the 8th, question resolves as ambiguous. Question also resolves as ambiguous if the price stays within 0.1%.

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