Your submission is now in Draft mode.

Once it's ready, please submit your draft for review by our team of Community Moderators. Thank you!

Submit Essay

Once you submit your essay, you can no longer edit it.

Pending

This content now needs to be approved by community moderators.

Submitted

This essay was submitted and is waiting for review.

Stock market rise correlated with Clinton victory?

Question

The US presidential election takes place Nov. 8, 2016. Either Clinton or Trump will presumably be declared winner that evening.

The stock market has currently (and will up to the 8th) 'priced in' the probability of a Clinton or Trump victory. But is the stock value conditioned on a Clinton victory higher or lower than conditioned on a Trump victory? That will be decided on Nov. 9.

Will the S&P 500 closing price at the end of trading on Nov. 9, compared to the morning of the 8th, correlate with a Clinton victory?

Question resolves as positive if:

  • Clinton wins and the S&P 500 rises by > 0.1% OR
  • Trump wins and the S&P 500 falls by > 0.1%

If Trump wins and prices go up OR Clinton wins and prices go down (by the same amount), question resolves negatively. If neither candidate is declared winner on the 8th, question resolves as ambiguous. Question also resolves as ambiguous if the price stays within 0.1%.

Make a Prediction

Prediction

Note: this question resolved before its original close time. All of your predictions came after the resolution, so you did not gain (or lose) any points for it.

Note: this question resolved before its original close time. You earned points up until the question resolution, but not afterwards.

Current points depend on your prediction, the community's prediction, and the result. Your total earned points are averaged over the lifetime of the question, so predict early to get as many points as possible! See the FAQ.