You're challenged to make a prediction with a 2030 resolve date, to which you'd give 65% or more probability, but for which you predict the community prediction will be 35% or less.
OR
You're challenged to make a prediction with a 2030 resolve date, to which you'd give 25% or less probability, but for which you predict the community prediction will be 75% or more.
(Specify the valence of the surprise in your prediction. Why did I chose different numbers for the two cases? Because idiosyncratic pessimism is easier.)