Question

Will Kash Patel be confirmed by the Senate as FBI Director by June 30, 2025?

Resolved:Yes

8 comments8

Total Forecasters87

Community Prediction

99.9%

(99.8% - 99.9%)

Make a Prediction

50%

community: 99.9%

Did this actually happen?Yes

Community Baseline Score

12.1

Community Peer Score

2.5

Authors:

jack.andolina

Opened:

Jan 31, 2025

Closes:

Jul 1, 2025

Resolves:

Jul 2, 2025

Spot Scoring Time:

Jan 31, 2025

Bright Line Watch Tournament

Social Sciences

Politics

2025 Leaderboard

Kash Patel: From poised to proven -- check out his interview on Joe Rogan

American Thinker•Jun 19, 2025

Trump, FBI’s Patel run with a weird new 2020 election conspiracy theory

MSNBC•Jun 19, 2025

FBI Director Kash Patel feeds 2020 election conspiracy theories with documents about unverified tip

NBC•Jun 18, 2025

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Will the Department of Justice file an indictment against either of the former Trump administration officials, Christopher Krebs or Miles Taylor, before January 1, 2026?

20%

Will Jerome Powell cease to hold the office of Chair of the Federal Reserve before 2026?

10%

Will the DOJ officially remove the requirement for U.S. attorneys to consult with the Public Integrity Section before prosecuting lawmakers before November 4, 2026?

73.5%

Authors:

jack.andolina

Opened:

Jan 31, 2025

Closes:

Jul 1, 2025

Resolves:

Jul 2, 2025

Spot Scoring Time:

Jan 31, 2025

Bright Line Watch Tournament

Social Sciences

Politics

2025 Leaderboard

Kash Patel: From poised to proven -- check out his interview on Joe Rogan

American Thinker•Jun 19, 2025

Trump, FBI’s Patel run with a weird new 2020 election conspiracy theory

MSNBC•Jun 19, 2025

FBI Director Kash Patel feeds 2020 election conspiracy theories with documents about unverified tip

NBC•Jun 18, 2025

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Will the Department of Justice file an indictment against either of the former Trump administration officials, Christopher Krebs or Miles Taylor, before January 1, 2026?

20%

Will Jerome Powell cease to hold the office of Chair of the Federal Reserve before 2026?

10%

Will the DOJ officially remove the requirement for U.S. attorneys to consult with the Public Integrity Section before prosecuting lawmakers before November 4, 2026?

73.5%