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US invades and attempts a regime change in Iran in 2020?


Under president Trump, the US goverment has adopted a policy of maximum presure towards the government of Iran, in an effort to curb its nuclear ambitions and proxy warfare. The US has, however, stopped short of calling for regime change in Iran and has thus far avoided striking targets inside of Iran. Experts have warned, however, that the killing of QUDS leader Qassem Soleimani could lead to a pattern of mutual escalation and ultimately all-out war.

Will the US armed forces launch an invasion of Iran with the intention of overthrowing the Supreme Leader of Iran in 2020?

Question resolves positively if both:

  1. US air AND ground forces strike targets while inside the land border of Iran. The ground forces alone have to be in excess of 2000 troops. USSOCOM-led forces do not count.

  2. And while US troops are on Iranian soil, either:

    a. The US government issues an official statement* calling for Ali Khamenei to resign/surrender or otherwise abdicate his position as Supreme Leader of Iran

    b. Or subsequent to a US invasion of Iran, Khamenei ceases to hold the title of Supreme Leader for any reason (death, resignation, etc)

    c. Or the US recognizes a government other than that headed by Supreme Leader Khamenei as the legal government of Iran

Credible media reports that these have happened are sufficient for resolution.

Question resolves negatively if on January 1, 2021 Khamenei remains Supreme Leader of Iran and the US either failed to invade Iran (1) or not attempted regime change (2)

Question resolves ambiguously if: Khamenei ceases to be Supreme Leader of Iran prior to a US invasion for any reason.

*An official statement includes any statement by a member of the executive branch that could be reasonably construed to describe the offical policy of the US goverment. Or, a bill passed by the US congress. In the case where there is ambiguity about whether a statement represents the official policy of the US government (e.g. Trump tweet), it does not count if it is retracted or substantially amended within 48 hours.

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