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52 comments
281 forecasters

Will there be a culturally significant development in aging research by 2030?

58%chance

The community sees this as a toss-up.

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Authors:
Matthew_Barnett
Opened:Jan 12, 2020
Closes:Jan 1, 2030
Scheduled resolution:Jan 1, 2030
Spot Scoring Time:Jan 12, 2020
Social Sciences
Health & Pandemics
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Before January 1, 2032, will an FDA-approved therapeutic intervention demonstrate a statistically significant reversal of at least 10 years in biological age in humans?

10% chance
16

Five years after AGI, will there be widely available radical life extension treatment?

60% chance
87

Will an FDA-approved diagnostic test that predicts individual response to longevity interventions be commercially available and covered by insurers by January 1, 2030?

34% chance
10
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