composing predictive futures delivering precise estimations calculating critical insights composing predictive understanding formulating calibrated forecasts mapping the future predicting accurate contingencies delivering accurate predictions mapping probable contingencies calculating accurate insights computing calibrated forecasts aggregating intelligent wisdom delivering precise understanding aggregating quantitative futures


Metaculus Help: Spread the word

If you like Metaculus, tell your friends! Share this question via Facebook, Twitter, or Reddit.

Artificial pancreas goes mainstream in 2017?

Diabetes affects more than 29 million Americans. It's a disease of the pancreas, an organ that, among other functions, monitors the body's blood sugar levels and releases the hormone insulin as needed to keep blood sugar under control.

Diabetes results from a malfunction in the pancreas, requiring people with the disease to monitor their own blood sugar levels and deliver insulin as needed, either through a hypodermic syringe or an insulin pump, which requires user input as to when and how much insulin to deliver.

In September 2016, a device from Medtronic gained FDA approval as the first artificial pancreas, an automated insulin pump that automatically carries out blood sugar detection and insulin delivery without the user needing to manually program a pump. It is designed around existing insulin pump technology but with an additional algorithms to automatically regulate blood sugar. This is a boon to people with diabetes, particularly for night-time insulin delivery.

Some human input is still required, but only for large meals, exercise, and recalibrating the device with manual blood sugar testing every 12 hours.

Medtronic's device is a milestone in diabetes therapy (and resolved a previous version of this question before it even got launched!), but the first artificial pancreas will be far from the last. A device made by Insulet, claims to go up to 72 hours with no user input. Other companies are developing their own devices as well.

As of September 2016, Insulet is still enrolling people to participate in its trial study in preparation for their own FDA application.

Will an artificial pancreas competitor secure FDA approval by the end of 2017?

For this question to resolve as positive, a device manufactured by a company other than Medtronic and intended to serve as an artificial pancreas that automatically delivers insulin based on sensor readings must appear on the FDA's recently approved devices list on or before Dec. 31, 2017.

(Updated 10/13/16 to add "that automatically delivers insulin based on sensor readings" to resolution criteria.)


Metaculus help: Predicting

Predictions are the heart of Metaculus. Predicting is how you contribute to the wisdom of the crowd, and how you earn points and build up your personal Metaculus track record.

The basics of predicting are very simple: move the slider to best match the likelihood of the outcome, and click predict. You can predict as often as you want, and you're encouraged to change your mind when new information becomes available.

The displayed score is split into current points and total points. Current points show how much your prediction is worth now, whereas total points show the combined worth of all of your predictions over the lifetime of the question. The scoring details are available on the FAQ.

Note: this question resolved before its original close time. All of your predictions came after the resolution, so you did not gain (or lose) any points for it.

Note: this question resolved before its original close time. You earned points up until the question resolution, but not afterwards.

This question is not yet open for predictions.

Thanks for predicting!

Your prediction has been recorded anonymously.

Want to track your predictions, earn points, and hone your forecasting skills? Create an account today!

Track your predictions
Continue exploring the site

Community Stats

Metaculus help: Community Stats

Use the community stats to get a better sense of the community consensus (or lack thereof) for this question. Sometimes people have wildly different ideas about the likely outcomes, and sometimes people are in close agreement. There are even times when the community seems very certain of uncertainty, like when everyone agrees that event is only 50% likely to happen.

When you make a prediction, check the community stats to see where you land. If your prediction is an outlier, might there be something you're overlooking that others have seen? Or do you have special insight that others are lacking? Either way, it might be a good idea to join the discussion in the comments.

Embed this question

You can use the below code snippet to embed this question on your own webpage. Feel free to change the height and width to suit your needs.