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Will there be a US-Iran war in 2020?


Recent escalation between US and Iran, culminating (so far) in killing of Qasem Soleimani, led to a lot of talk about war between US and Iran being possible.

So the question is: will there be a war between the United States of America and Iran in 2020?

For the purpose of this questions, the war between US and Iran is defined as:

  • US President (whether it is Donald Trump or any other person) requests and receives Congressional authorization for military action (even if the word "war" is not used) against Iran
  • There is a significant military action involving US and Iranian military, and lasting longer than 2 days, as described by major news sources.

Both conditions should be fulfilled for the question to resolve positively.

Isolated ad-hoc military engagements, as well as targeted strikes, terrorist attacks against civilians or attacks against military targets not resulting in prolonged engagement with Congressional authorization, and actions via proxies do not count as "war" for the purpose of this question.

If the Congress does authorize the military action against Iran, the question should be retroactively closed 24 hours before that.

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