Question
What will be the difference between the Arena Score of o3 and the next best model on Chatbot Arena, on April 5, 2025?
Resolved:Below lower boundTotal Forecasters23
Community Prediction
19.2
(-4.7 - >30)
Make a Prediction
CDF
| Lower bound | community | My Prediction |
| <-30 | 12.5% | — |
| Quartiles | ||
| lower 25% | -4.7 | — |
| median | 19.16 | — |
| upper 75% | >30 | — |
| Upper bound | ||
| >30 | 38.5% | — |
What was the final result?Below lower bound
Community Peer Score
34.7
Authors:
Opened:Feb 3, 2025
Closes:Feb 3, 2025
Resolves:Apr 5, 2025
Spot Scoring Time:Feb 3, 2025
Include Bots:Yes
Authors:
Opened:Feb 3, 2025
Closes:Feb 3, 2025
Resolves:Apr 5, 2025
Spot Scoring Time:Feb 3, 2025
Include Bots:Yes