Question

When will the first weakly general AI system be devised, tested, and publicly announced?

203

491 comments491

Total Forecasters1547

Community Prediction2026-12-30 (2025-09-03 - 2029-11-18)

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My Prediction

community

<2020-03-27

lower 25%

median

upper 75%

>2200-01-04

...

0.4%

2025-09-03 08:43

2026-12-30 21:18

2029-11-18 01:23

1.1%

Authors:

Anthony

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When will the first general AI system be devised, tested, and publicly announced?

2031-06-05

After a (weak) AGI is created, how many months will it be before the first superintelligent AI is created?

34.7

Will a major AI lab claim in 2025 that they have developed AGI?

20%

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