612
1.7k forecasters
When will the first weakly general AI system be devised, tested, and publicly announced?
Current estimate
26 May 2028
Top Key Factors
↑ reliable >50-step agent chains with published evals
Delays
China starts a war with the land of Taiwan BEFORE said weakly general AI
Hastens
↓ grid/permit delays & export controls on HBM/nodes
Delays
AI become student of arts university in Vienna
Delays
↑ multi-year compute/colo contracts confirmed via filings
Delays