559 comments
1.7k forecasters
When will the first weakly general AI system be devised, tested, and publicly announced?
Current estimate
29 May 2027
Key Factors
Forecast Timeline
Authors:
Opened:Jan 18, 2020
Closes:Jan 1, 2200
Scheduled resolution:Jan 1, 2200
Spot Scoring Time:Jan 20, 2020
When will the first general AI system be devised, tested, and publicly announced?
Oct 2033
(10 Sep 2028 - Jun 2046)
Oct 2033
(10 Sep 2028 - Jun 2046)
1.8k forecasters
After a (weak) AGI is created, how many months will it be before the first superintelligent AI is created?
30.4 months
(8.89 - 115)
30.4 months
(8.89 - 115)
329 forecasters
Will a major AI lab claim in 2025 that they have developed AGI?
1% chance
396