563 comments
1.7k forecasters
When will the first weakly general AI system be devised, tested, and publicly announced?
Current estimate
20 Sep 2027
Key Factors
Forecast Timeline
Authors:
Opened:Jan 18, 2020
Closes:Jan 1, 2200
Scheduled resolution:Jan 1, 2200
Spot Scoring Time:Jan 20, 2020
When will the first general AI system be devised, tested, and publicly announced?
Aug 2033
(29 Sep 2028 - Sep 2045)
Aug 2033
(29 Sep 2028 - Sep 2045)
1.8k forecasters
After a (weak) AGI is created, how many months will it be before the first superintelligent AI is created?
32.3 months
(9.32 - 134)
32.3 months
(9.32 - 134)
332 forecasters
Will a major AI lab claim in 2025 that they have developed AGI?
1% chance
413